Thinking
120 notes, 22 favorites. Often alongside life, money and agency.
Start here · 10 min
- Fake Explanations★(favorite)Eliezer Yudkowsky · 3 min
Yudkowsky argues that an explanation able to fit any outcome predicts nothing, so saying "because of heat conduction" without real expectations is just magic dressed in scientific words.
- Think Like Reality★(favorite)Eliezer Yudkowsky · 3 min
Yudkowsky argues that calling quantum physics weird exposes bad intuitions, since surprise lives in the model, so you should reshape them until reality feels normal.
- Paying Attention★(favorite)Morgan Housel · 4 min
Housel argues that choosing what to ignore is the key attention skill: favor permanent knowledge over expiring news, remember stories, and listen to admired people who disagree.
All 120 notes
Ango shares the 40 questions he answers at the end of every year, from what you did for the first time to what you want next year, noting that the real value is the trends that show up across years.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
- Beautiful vs. Practical AdviceMorgan Housel
Hall treats agency as a learnable skill and shares the edges that built hers: court rejection, seek anonymous feedback, take random meetings, cross the moat of low status, and avoid burnout.
Related
- 50 things I knowCate Hall
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
Friedman's credo: reshape the world with technology, move fast because time is the denominator, keep teams small, empower great individuals, and distrust the efficient market.
Related
- Gradient Descent ValleysSlava Akhmechet
- 50 things I knowCate Hall
- Staring into the abyss as a core life skillBen Kuhn
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
Hall's 50 hard-won lessons on love, judgment, and agency, from caring about people who don't care back to doing the tasks you most want to avoid first and knowing when to quit.
Related
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Some Things I BelieveNat Friedman
- Gradient Descent ValleysSlava Akhmechet
- Staring into the abyss as a core life skillBen Kuhn
Karlsson argues that most writing doesn't help you think, and that it becomes a real tool for thought only when you use it to find and test the flaws in your ideas.
Related
- The Written WordMorgan Housel
- Semantic gapsSebastian Bensusan
- SotW: Be SpecificEliezer Yudkowsky
- Taboo Your WordsEliezer Yudkowsky
Housel argues progress is easy to underestimate because it comes from small ideas recombining and compounding over generations, the way Edwin Land influenced Steve Jobs, rather than from lone geniuses.
Related
- When You Change the World and No One NoticesMorgan Housel
- The typical path of how people respond to life-changing inventionsChris Dixon
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
- Technology predictionsSam Altman
Housel argues that the best way to learn how the world works is to see how connected every field is, since the big lessons from one domain often explain another.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
- Different Kinds of SmartMorgan Housel
- How to Read: Lots of Inputs and a Strong FilterMorgan Housel
Housel argues that choosing what to ignore is the key attention skill: favor permanent knowledge over expiring news, remember stories, and listen to admired people who disagree.
Related
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
- Different Kinds of SmartMorgan Housel
- How to Read: Lots of Inputs and a Strong FilterMorgan Housel
Housel lists the easy mental shortcuts people take instead of hard thinking, like killing uncertainty fast, blaming complex events on one cause, judging others but excusing yourself, and trusting stories over statistics.
Related
- A Few Short StoriesMorgan Housel
- A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure About (2026)Morgan Housel
- A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure About (2023)Morgan Housel
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
- NewRead Old BooksTed Lamade 10 min
Lamade argues old books reveal lessons that stay true because people don't change, using Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and quotes from 1980s investors like Peter Lynch to show how the same mistakes repeat.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- Reality has a surprising amount of detailJohn Salvatier
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
Housel argues that high intelligence can backfire, since smart people build elaborate stories to explain randomness, dismiss less-credentialed voices, and cling to outdated ideas to protect their reputations.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- Different Kinds of SmartMorgan Housel
- How to Read: Lots of Inputs and a Strong FilterMorgan Housel
Housel's uncomfortable self-audit questions, such as whose admired life is secretly miserable, which beliefs you hold only for tribal standing, and whether your ambition is really envy.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
- Beautiful vs. Practical AdviceMorgan Housel
- Makes You ThinkMorgan Housel
Housel's 2025 set of self-audit questions, such as how you'd define a good life without comparison, whose approval you're auditioning for, and which principles you'd drop if they stopped earning praise.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- Beautiful vs. Practical AdviceMorgan Housel
- Makes You ThinkMorgan Housel
Housel collects short historical stories with lessons on behavior, from drivers ignoring seat belts for decades to Scots massing troops during the Black Death and Apollo astronauts finding the moon underwhelming.
Related
- Psychological Paths of Least ResistanceMorgan Housel
- A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure About (2026)Morgan Housel
- A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure About (2023)Morgan Housel
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
Housel's convictions on money and behavior, from not needing to impress anyone as the best financial asset to expectations inflation, endurance as the key to success, and how ego and impatience override intelligence.
Related
- A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure About (2026)Morgan Housel
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- Psychological Paths of Least ResistanceMorgan Housel
- The Luckier You Are The Nicer You Should BeMorgan Housel
Housel argues nostalgia comes from knowing how the story ends, which erases the uncertainty you felt at the time and makes past years, markets, and eras look easier than they were.
Related
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
- Beautiful vs. Practical AdviceMorgan Housel
- Makes You ThinkMorgan Housel
Housel argues every forecast multiplies a hard number from today by a story about tomorrow, so data-driven predictions are mostly storytelling and always deserve room for error.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
- Information That Would Get Your AttentionMorgan Housel
Housel argues outlier success often pairs a science with an unrelated art, like Einstein's thought experiments, and that great investors are usually great writers because clear communication keeps investors loyal and thinking honest.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
Housel compares much financial advice to magazine architects whose award-winning buildings leak, arguing that most people need simple, boring, practical plans rather than advice that sounds brilliant.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
- Makes You ThinkMorgan Housel
Housel lists pairs of opposing skills investing demands at once, like taking big risks to get rich but avoiding them to stay rich, or trusting your gut while doubting your biases.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
- Information That Would Get Your AttentionMorgan Housel
Using the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, Housel argues academic intelligence is only one kind of smart, and that reading across fields, paranoia about survival, storytelling, and humility matter as much.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
- How to Read: Lots of Inputs and a Strong FilterMorgan Housel
Housel draws five broad lessons from history, including that hardship makes unthinkable views popular, unsustainable things last longer than expected, and progress moves too slowly to notice while setbacks hit fast.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
Koe argues cognitive flexibility matters more than raw intelligence, describes three levels of thinking from scripted NPC to self-aware programmer, and prescribes daily habits of questioning, curating, reading, and creating.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
Housel's filters for the flood of financial content: sort it by relevance, read respected people you disagree with, read beyond finance, use old news as a guide, and remember writers may play a different game than you.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- Information That Would Get Your AttentionMorgan Housel
Taking a cue from Munger, Housel argues you should start any book that interests you but quit ruthlessly once it stops working, since most books aren't worth finishing and a few can change your life.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
- Different Kinds of SmartMorgan Housel
Morgan Housel's list of questions for testing your own beliefs, from what you desperately want to be true to which views would change if your incentives did.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
Housel argues that imagining impossible information, like the exact role of luck in success, is useful because it forces you to think about what matters but is easy to ignore.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
Housel argues knowledge work often looks lazy because good decisions need quiet thinking time, as Rockefeller, Einstein, and Bill Gates's Think Weeks show, so judge workers by outcomes rather than visible effort.
Related
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
- Searching for outliersBen Kuhn
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
- Interview AdviceSlava Akhmechet
Housel suggests asking what isn't repeatable instead of who got lucky, so you copy the transferable skills of people like Bezos and Buffett and skip the conditions that will never recur.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
Housel collects lines on history, risk, and wisdom, from Sebastian Junger on people needing to feel necessary to Amos Tversky on staying a little underemployed to do good research.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
- Beautiful vs. Practical AdviceMorgan Housel
Lamade argues our poor grasp of odds fuels needless stress, since 25,000 valedictorians compete for about 15,000 Ivy seats, yet ignoring the odds is fine when you love the pursuit itself.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
Housel collects lines on wealth, happiness, and self-deception, from Ernest Dimnet on small destructive habits to Will Durant calling insecurity the mother of greed.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
- Beautiful vs. Practical AdviceMorgan Housel
Housel collects lines on judgment, humility, and happiness, from Albert Lasker's humility in the presence of a good idea to Jensen Huang on how high expectations destroy resilience.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
- Beautiful vs. Practical AdviceMorgan Housel
Housel argues success depends on surviving long losing streaks, as Ed Thorp's 2% blackjack edge still meant losing half his hands, which is why real optimism and a margin of safety matter more than the edge itself.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
Lamade argues we instinctively solve problems by adding things when subtracting often works better, from the pedal-less Strider bike and Chipotle's short menu to simpler investment portfolios.
Related
- Notes on Incident ResponseSlava Akhmechet
- Measurable does not mean importantFay
- Read Old BooksTed Lamade
- Our Achilles HeelTed Lamade
Buying books, hunting for inspiration, and watching tutorials feel like progress because the brain rewards preparation, so the fix is doing one small, imperfect piece of the actual work today.
Related
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
Housel argues long-term success depends on managing the short run well enough to survive it, from kids distracting themselves in the marshmallow test to Bill Gates keeping a year of payroll in the bank.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
Housel argues studying extreme cases teaches overly precise lessons that lead you to see rare patterns everywhere, as a 19th-century professor did diagnosing a rare disease his student had rightly ruled out.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
Housel argues pessimism sounds smarter than optimism because short-term shocks are easier to recall and we underestimate how people adapt, as Jeremy Siegel's long horizon and the oil cycles show.
Related
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
- How To Read Financial NewsMorgan Housel
- Information That Would Get Your AttentionMorgan Housel
Housel's rules for writing well: write what you like to read, use stories as leverage for ideas, aim for memorable sentences, and say the most in the fewest words without building up to your point.
Related
- An Art Leveraging A ScienceMorgan Housel
- How to think in writingHenrik Karlsson
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
- Semantic gapsSebastian Bensusan
Housel argues that some of the most valuable skills get little credit, like tolerating hassle you can't control and noticing how much wanting something shapes what you believe.
Related
- Lazy Work, Good WorkMorgan Housel
- Searching for outliersBen Kuhn
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
- Interview AdviceSlava Akhmechet
Taking a cue from Munger's advice to avoid obvious disasters, Housel writes a list of very bad advice, such as letting expectations outgrow income and judging others at their worst and yourself at your best.
Related
- Little Rules About Big ThingsMorgan Housel
- Some Things I ThinkMorgan Housel
- Very Good Advice (flipped)Morgan Housel
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
Housel collects short historical stories about luck, uncertainty, and hidden effort, from Henry Ford turning Model T scrap wood into Kingsford charcoal to Chris Rock testing jokes in small clubs before a tour.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
- Beautiful vs. Practical AdviceMorgan Housel
Housel argues world-changing inventions are usually ignored for years, as the Wright brothers were by the New York Times until 1906, so innovators need patience to wait for the world to notice.
Related
- Compounding OptimismMorgan Housel
- The typical path of how people respond to life-changing inventionsChris Dixon
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
- Technology predictionsSam Altman
Brian argues that a good life isn't a universal template, so measuring yours against other people's milestones guarantees it never feels like enough.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
Thomas reads Andreessen's motto through a lost traveler at a fork: commit fully to a path, then turn around fast when it dead-ends, which maximizes your rate of learning.
Related
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
- The illusion of productivity (and why we stay stuck)Brian • The Tiny Wisdom
Thomas argues that startup experiments should be designed to succeed or fail clearly, because a mediocre result, like two sales from 100 cold calls, teaches you nothing about whether to double down.
Related
- Information CompressionAlexandr Wang
- Incentives as selection effectsSebastian Bensusan
- Agency problemsChris Dixon
- Steve Jobs on problem solvingChris Dixon
Kuhn argues the people he admires most are great at thinking clearly about uncomfortable questions, like whether to pivot, quit, or break up, as Wave's CEO did through a dozen pivots, and offers ways to get better at it.
Related
- Some Things I BelieveNat Friedman
- Gradient Descent ValleysSlava Akhmechet
- 50 things I knowCate Hall
- Searching for outliersBen Kuhn
signull argues the world now changes faster than advice can keep up, so inherited maps like get a stable job go stale, and you need your own radar for what is shifting right now.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
signull argues attention works like gravity and pulls hardest toward whoever returns it least, which is why silence, scarcity, and one-sided interest hold our focus in relationships, markets, and culture.
Related
- Psychological Paths of Least ResistanceMorgan Housel
- A Few Short StoriesMorgan Housel
- Don't ask yes/no, ask A/BJakob Greenfeld
- the world doesn’t move because you tell it tosignull
Feeling stuck usually means a valley, not a local minimum: avoid volatile moves like quitting, build steady momentum, and take bigger steps in calm, promising directions.
Related
- On FailureSlava Akhmechet
- Some Things I BelieveNat Friedman
- 50 things I knowCate Hall
- Staring into the abyss as a core life skillBen Kuhn
In technical interviews, treat small problems like bugs as a normal part of the work: no change of pace, no irritation, no surprise, because composure is what strong performers share.
Related
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
- Searching for outliersBen Kuhn
- Lazy Work, Good WorkMorgan Housel
- Be Wary of Imitating High-Status People Who Can Afford to CountersignalRob Henderson
What good incident response takes under uncertainty and time pressure: the rare mix of equanimity, rigor, and urgency, plus calm, organized coordination of the war room.
Related
- Take Something AwayTed Lamade
- Measurable does not mean importantFay
- How to Capture AttentionSlava Akhmechet
- Gradient Descent ValleysSlava Akhmechet
Housel on why bad behavior makes sense with more information, how housing affordability drives social problems, why people fear AI after the internet, and why politics runs in cycles.
Related
- A Few Things I’m Pretty Sure About (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- Psychological Paths of Least ResistanceMorgan Housel
- The Luckier You Are The Nicer You Should BeMorgan Housel
Housel's handful of ideas that shaped his thinking, including how tribes bend beliefs, why history repeats in behavior, why room for error is aggressive, and how personal experience skews your view.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
Housel's list of short rules on money, risk, and behavior, from keeping a gap between ego and income to fearing permanent damage far more than temporary harm.
Related
- Some Things I ThinkMorgan Housel
- Very Good Advice (flipped)Morgan Housel
- Very Bad AdviceMorgan Housel
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
Using data to design sounds objective. On metrics versus intent, A/B tests, and why judgment still has to make the call.
Related
- Take Something AwayTed Lamade
- Notes on Incident ResponseSlava Akhmechet
- Premature optimizationSam Altman
- Vanity milestonesChris Dixon
Housel's one-line observations on wealth, luck, and human nature, such as measuring wealth as what you have minus what you want and the value of not needing to impress anyone.
Related
- Little Rules About Big ThingsMorgan Housel
- Very Good Advice (flipped)Morgan Housel
- Very Bad AdviceMorgan Housel
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
Smart ideas get copied fast, so lasting advantage comes from doing what others won't, starting with the ability to learn faster than the competition.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
- Different Kinds of SmartMorgan Housel
Altman argues democracy breaks down without economic growth, since voters in a zero-sum system can only gain at each other's expense, and that America's dysfunction traces back to slowing real growth.
Related
- A founder-friendly term sheetSam Altman
- Fundraising Mistakes Founders MakeSam Altman
- How To Invest In StartupsSam Altman
- Upside riskSam Altman
Altman argues that A/B tests and funnel tweaks only matter once users love the product, so early startups should chase a step change in the product itself rather than incremental 10% gains.
Related
- Before GrowthSam Altman
- Growth and GovernmentSam Altman
- Vanity milestonesChris Dixon
- Why vanity metrics are dangerousEric Ries
Altman collects confident expert predictions that turned out wrong, from Wilbur Wright doubting flight and Einstein dismissing nuclear energy to 2015 skeptics calling superhuman AI ridiculous.
Related
- The typical path of how people respond to life-changing inventionsChris Dixon
- Compounding OptimismMorgan Housel
- When You Change the World and No One NoticesMorgan Housel
- Exponential curves feel gradual and then suddenChris Dixon
- NewUpside riskSam Altman 2 min
Altman argues that because one angel investment often returns more than all the rest combined, the real risk is missing the outlier, so investors should stop demanding protective terms that drive off the best founders.
Related
- Growth and GovernmentSam Altman
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- A Number From Today and A Story About TomorrowMorgan Housel
- Conflicting Skill SetsMorgan Housel
Wang's 2019 Scale memo argues companies slow down because people compress complex problems badly when handing them off, so the fix is shared context, vertical teams, and solving your own problems.
Related
- The Worst Outcome is a Mediocre SuccessAbraham Thomas
- Incentives as selection effectsSebastian Bensusan
- Agency problemsChris Dixon
- Steve Jobs on problem solvingChris Dixon
Henderson argues you should copy people a little ahead of you rather than stars, since successful people can afford countersignals like humility or not self-promoting that would hurt someone just starting out.
Related
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
- Searching for outliersBen Kuhn
- Lazy Work, Good WorkMorgan Housel
- Interview AdviceSlava Akhmechet
Bensusan argues you should read people backwards from what they actually accomplish, since that reveals their real motivation, as he learned when he forgot the protein in his protein pudding.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
Yudkowsky argues school trains students to recite answers like "light is waves" that earn gold stars but predict nothing, and that real understanding means a belief that controls what you expect to see.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- Reality has a surprising amount of detailJohn Salvatier
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
When you apply a new incentive, you select for a new population that prefers the incentive.
Related
- Information CompressionAlexandr Wang
- The Worst Outcome is a Mediocre SuccessAbraham Thomas
- Agency problemsChris Dixon
- Steve Jobs on problem solvingChris Dixon
Bensusan argues that needing time to think usually means fearing risks you already understand, so ask what you need to know to decide now, with a reply from Andy Matuschak on when waiting helps.
Related
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
- The illusion of productivity (and why we stay stuck)Brian • The Tiny Wisdom
When one language draws a distinction another lacks, like Swedish's four words for grandparents, listeners get stuck on details that don't matter to the story.
Related
- How to think in writingHenrik Karlsson
- The Written WordMorgan Housel
- SotW: Be SpecificEliezer Yudkowsky
- Taboo Your WordsEliezer Yudkowsky
Gichuru uses Price's Law, where the square root of a group does half the work, to argue for producing in volume, finding the few posts and skills that matter, and doubling down on them.
Related
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
Bensusan argues writers' ideas mostly flow from their personalities, as he learns every time he meets an author, so knowing the person, through podcasts or biography, changes how much authority their arguments deserve.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- Reality has a surprising amount of detailJohn Salvatier
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- Read Old BooksTed Lamade
Uses the hill-climbing algorithm to explain why smart people stay on career paths they don't want, and why moving to the higher hill early beats climbing the wrong one.
Related
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
- Searching for outliersBen Kuhn
- Lazy Work, Good WorkMorgan Housel
- Interview AdviceSlava Akhmechet
Big companies constantly fight misaligned incentives between employees and the firm, so selling to them means knowing what each decision maker is rewarded for.
Related
- Steve Jobs on problem solvingChris Dixon
- Vanity milestonesChris Dixon
- Information CompressionAlexandr Wang
- The Worst Outcome is a Mediocre SuccessAbraham Thomas
Feedback loops between platforms and apps produce exponential growth that looks slow for years and then sudden, with smartphones as the main example.
Related
- The typical path of how people respond to life-changing inventionsChris Dixon
- Compounding OptimismMorgan Housel
- When You Change the World and No One NoticesMorgan Housel
- Technology predictionsSam Altman
Steve Jobs on pushing past the convoluted middle stage of a hard problem to find its underlying principle and an elegant solution.
Related
- Agency problemsChris Dixon
- Vanity milestonesChris Dixon
- Information CompressionAlexandr Wang
- The Worst Outcome is a Mediocre SuccessAbraham Thomas
A ten-step list of how people react to a transformative technology, from never having heard of it to calling it too powerful and demanding regulation.
Related
- Exponential curves feel gradual and then suddenChris Dixon
- Compounding OptimismMorgan Housel
- When You Change the World and No One NoticesMorgan Housel
- Technology predictionsSam Altman
Extends Eric Ries's vanity metrics to milestones: celebrity investors, brand partnerships, and press that feel like progress but don't help the company.
Related
- Agency problemsChris Dixon
- Steve Jobs on problem solvingChris Dixon
- Premature optimizationSam Altman
- Why vanity metrics are dangerousEric Ries
Gross numbers like "hits" feel like progress but hide who your customers are and what caused growth, so teams should track actionable metrics instead.
Related
- Premature optimizationSam Altman
- Vanity milestonesChris Dixon
- Information CompressionAlexandr Wang
- Take Something AwayTed Lamade
Framing a request as a choice between two options instead of yes or no takes "no" off the table, and the same trick works for your own habits.
Related
- Psychological Paths of Least ResistanceMorgan Housel
- A Few Short StoriesMorgan Housel
- the physics of attentionsignull
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
Greenfeld argues the secret behind outsized impact is a deep belief that you can make a dent in the universe, since expectations shape reality and self-doubt becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Related
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
- Letting Now Jakob make decisions for Future JakobJakob Greenfeld
- Thinking harder doesn’t work (or how I learned to love the right half of my brain)Jakob Greenfeld
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
Greenfeld argues junk content compounds like junk food, pointing to Alex Hormozi's finding that viewers of short entertaining videos almost never move on to his deeper long-form content.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- Reality has a surprising amount of detailJohn Salvatier
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- Read Old BooksTed Lamade
Applies the investing barbell strategy to everyday life: skip the middle and combine extremes in caffeine, reading, friendships, and writing.
Related
- The Seduction of PessimismMorgan Housel
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
- Salary Negotiation: Make More Money, Be More ValuedPatrick McKenzie
- Searching for outliersBen Kuhn
Kumar argues that copying successful people like Elon Musk fails because their habits only work in context and survivorship bias hides the rest, so the better bet is to be uniquely yourself.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
- Searching for outliersBen Kuhn
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
Greenfeld balances structure and spontaneity by deciding each evening what tomorrow's deep work and task blocks will hold, since he chooses far better for his future self than in the moment.
Related
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
- Elon Musk's, Steve Jobs', Albert Einstein's Secret SauceJakob Greenfeld
- Thinking harder doesn’t work (or how I learned to love the right half of my brain)Jakob Greenfeld
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
Greenfeld uses the single vote to show how actions too small to matter on their own, like a little junk food or doomscrolling, add up to define who you are.
Related
- Elon Musk's, Steve Jobs', Albert Einstein's Secret SauceJakob Greenfeld
- Letting Now Jakob make decisions for Future JakobJakob Greenfeld
- Thinking harder doesn’t work (or how I learned to love the right half of my brain)Jakob Greenfeld
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
Buggy software quietly trains users to avoid its problems until they stop noticing them, which hides bugs from developers and from the users themselves.
Related
- The typical path of how people respond to life-changing inventionsChris Dixon
- Compounding OptimismMorgan Housel
- When You Change the World and No One NoticesMorgan Housel
- Technology predictionsSam Altman
Pearson uses the can opener test and Germany's collapsing scientific forests to show how overconfidence breeds hidden risk, and recommends knowing your limits, building deep expertise, and keeping a margin of safety.
Related
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
- Anchoring and AdjustmentEliezer Yudkowsky
Starting from a vague founder pitch at YC office hours, a call for exercises that train people to replace abstract claims with concrete, specific examples.
Related
- Taboo Your WordsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands YouEliezer Yudkowsky
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
Yudkowsky argues that banning a disputed word and describing what you actually expect to observe dissolves fake disagreements, like the tree falling in an empty forest, and exposes real ones hiding behind shared labels.
Related
- SotW: Be SpecificEliezer Yudkowsky
- Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands YouEliezer Yudkowsky
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
Aaron Swartz argues effective people work backward from a goal to a concrete theory of how change happens, while most people just apply whatever skills they already have.
Related
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
- NewThinking harder doesn’t work (or how I learned to love the right half of my brain)Jakob Greenfeld 7 min
Greenfeld argues analytical, left-brain thinking oversells frameworks and plans, so he now sits with problems and leans into the obvious, the way improv pros do, to let intuition contribute.
Related
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
- Elon Musk's, Steve Jobs', Albert Einstein's Secret SauceJakob Greenfeld
- Letting Now Jakob make decisions for Future JakobJakob Greenfeld
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
Greenfeld argues that because every piece of success advice has an equally valid opposite, the skill is knowing when to use which, and that usefulness, even useful delusion, matters more than truth.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
Explains anchoring: people start from an arbitrary number and adjust too little, as Tversky and Kahneman's wheel-of-fortune experiment showed.
Related
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hindsight biasEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hug the QueryEliezer Yudkowsky
Yudkowsky argues that knowing an outcome makes it look far more predictable than it was, so after disasters like Challenger and 9/11 we learn overly specific lessons and underestimate the real cost of caution.
Related
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- Anchoring and AdjustmentEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hug the QueryEliezer Yudkowsky
Yudkowsky argues the strongest evidence sits closest to the question itself, so checking the Wright brothers' calculations or watching the plane fly beats weighing Lord Kelvin's authority or anyone's biases.
Related
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- Anchoring and AdjustmentEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hindsight biasEliezer Yudkowsky
Most people pursue goals through far less effective routes than they could find, because good strategy takes deliberate effort and nothing pushes us toward it by default.
Related
- Learned BlanknessAnna Salamon
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
Yudkowsky uses Boaz Keysar's experiments to show that we know what we mean and assume others do too, so speakers overestimate how well they're understood, as Chamberlain did in his letter to Hitler.
Related
- SotW: Be SpecificEliezer Yudkowsky
- Taboo Your WordsEliezer Yudkowsky
- You can't tell people anythingChip Morningstar
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
What's obvious to you often isn't to others, so it's worth saying "obvious" things out loud and dropping the word "obviously" from your arguments.
Related
- How to think in writingHenrik Karlsson
- The Written WordMorgan Housel
- Semantic gapsSebastian Bensusan
- SotW: Be SpecificEliezer Yudkowsky
Uses Wason's 2-4-6 task to show how people only test cases that confirm their hypothesis, and why you should look for evidence that could prove you wrong.
Related
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- Anchoring and AdjustmentEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hindsight biasEliezer Yudkowsky
Building stairs and fences taught Salvatier that every real task hides countless details, which is why experts miss what they don't know to look for and get stuck.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- Read Old BooksTed Lamade
- The Dumber Side of Smart PeopleMorgan Housel
A wiki page arguing scientific papers should report likelihood functions instead of p-values, so readers can see how strongly the evidence supports each hypothesis.
Related
- The Map Is Not The TerritoryLessWrong
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
A wiki entry on Korzybski's map-territory distinction: beliefs are models of reality, and changing what you believe doesn't change the world itself.
Related
- Report likelihoods, not p-valuesLessWrong
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- I Have A Few QuestionsMorgan Housel
Why Yoda was right: setting out to "try" means aiming at having made an effort rather than at success, and that lower target quietly guarantees weaker plans.
Related
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
- NewQuestionsPatrick Collison 15 min
Patrick Collison's running list of big open questions he finds interesting, such as why some things like healthcare and education keep getting more expensive.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- Reality has a surprising amount of detailJohn Salvatier
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- Read Old BooksTed Lamade
Yudkowsky argues that an explanation able to fit any outcome predicts nothing, so saying "because of heat conduction" without real expectations is just magic dressed in scientific words.
Related
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- Anchoring and AdjustmentEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hindsight biasEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hug the QueryEliezer Yudkowsky
How labeling a domain as one you "just don't understand," like mechanical things or math, makes people stop thinking before they've tried the obvious next question.
Related
- Humans are not automatically strategicAnna Salamon
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
Yudkowsky argues you should admit a big mistake all at once rather than concede it in small grudging pieces, since only acknowledging a fundamental error drives real change, as Enron's executives never did.
Related
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- Anchoring and AdjustmentEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hindsight biasEliezer Yudkowsky
The adage that any headline ending in a question mark can be answered "no," because a publisher confident in the answer would have stated it outright.
Related
- How to think in writingHenrik Karlsson
- The Written WordMorgan Housel
- Semantic gapsSebastian Bensusan
- SotW: Be SpecificEliezer Yudkowsky
Charlie Munger's rules for a life that works, drawn from his 2007 USC Law commencement speech: deserve what you want, keep learning, invert problems, be reliable, avoid ideology and self-pity, and earn deserved trust.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
Yudkowsky argues that calling quantum physics weird exposes bad intuitions, since surprise lives in the model, so you should reshape them until reality feels normal.
Related
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Anchoring and AdjustmentEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hindsight biasEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hug the QueryEliezer Yudkowsky
Startup investing returns come from a few huge winners, and the best ideas look bad at first, so investors should bet on ideas that seem crazy rather than safe.
Related
- How to Raise MoneyPaul Graham
- How to Make WealthPaul Graham
- Growth and GovernmentSam Altman
- Startup = GrowthPaul Graham
Before questioning a belief you care about, picture calmly how you'd live if it were false, so the evidence doesn't feel like a threat you have to fight off.
Related
- Fake ExplanationsEliezer Yudkowsky
- Think Like RealityEliezer Yudkowsky
- Anchoring and AdjustmentEliezer Yudkowsky
- Hindsight biasEliezer Yudkowsky
Kuhn argues that jobs, hires, relationships, and blog posts follow heavy-tailed distributions, so you should draw many samples, filter for maybe-amazing over probably-good, and expect to fail a lot.
Related
- Useful and Overlooked SkillsMorgan Housel
- Lazy Work, Good WorkMorgan Housel
- Interview AdviceSlava Akhmechet
- Be Wary of Imitating High-Status People Who Can Afford to CountersignalRob Henderson
A compilation of 194 eponymous laws, pithy rules of thumb like Murphy's Law that capture truths about human behavior, work, and systems.
Related
- Paying AttentionMorgan Housel
- Reality has a surprising amount of detailJohn Salvatier
- One Big Web: A Few Ways the World WorksMorgan Housel
- Read Old BooksTed Lamade
Hard problems get solved by the thinking you do without trying, like in the shower, so guard what occupies your mind, especially against money and disputes.
Related
- How to be more agenticCate Hall
- Strong Opinions, Weakly HeldAbraham Thomas
- Risk-takers decide fasterSebastian Bensusan
- On the importance of infinitesimal actionsJakob Greenfeld
Qureshi's 63 life principles, centered on moving fast, making many bets, putting yourself out there, and seeking environments and people that push you to your best work.
Related
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel
- 40 questions to ask yourself every yearSteph Ango
- A Few Questions (2023)Morgan Housel
- A Few Questions (2025)Morgan Housel
Stancil argues leaders often order more analysis to dodge hard calls rather than learn anything, using data as a substitute for courage, and that analysts who want to lead must learn to own decisions the data can't settle.
Related
- The typical path of how people respond to life-changing inventionsChris Dixon
- Compounding OptimismMorgan Housel
- Take Something AwayTed Lamade
- When You Change the World and No One NoticesMorgan Housel
Explaining a new idea in words rarely works; people only understand once they experience it, which changes how you should pitch, demo, and teach.
Related
- Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands YouEliezer Yudkowsky
- the world doesn’t move because you tell it tosignull
- How to think in writingHenrik Karlsson
- Psychological Paths of Least ResistanceMorgan Housel
Morgan Housel's Very Bad Advice list rewritten as its positive version, on envy, status, independence, self-worth, and whose example to follow.
Related
- Little Rules About Big ThingsMorgan Housel
- Some Things I ThinkMorgan Housel
- Very Bad AdviceMorgan Housel
- A Message From the Past (Thoughts on Nostalgia)Morgan Housel